The gamblers of the future? Migration from loot boxes to gambling in a longitudinal study of young adults

Cross-sectional studies have established a robust correlational link between loot box engagement and problem gambling, but the causal connections are unknown. This longitudinal study tested for ‘migration’ from use to gambling initiation 6-months later. A sample of gamers (aged 18–26) was stratified into two subgroups at baseline: 415 non-gamblers 221 gamblers. Self-reported with video game microtransactions distinguished boxes ‘direct purchase’ (DPMs). Loot expenditure Risky Box Index (RLI) were as predictors self-identified spend follow-up. At baseline, gamblers spent significantly more than on microtransactions. Among baseline non-gamblers, RLI predicted (logistic regressions) later spending (linear regressions). DPM did not predict or after correcting multiple comparisons, underscoring key role randomized rewards. Exploratory analyses whether consumption (the ‘reverse pathway’): among non-users, gambling-related cognitive distortions subsequent expenditure. These data provide empirical evidence migration gambling. Preliminary is also provided reverse pathway, by findings support regulatory steps directed toward young those who gamble.